But is China just Biden its time?
UK telco BT has used its knowledge of monopolist tactics to ‘war game’ the various nightmare options for its own supply chain should tensions escalate between China and Taiwan. For two days last year it simulated a range of disasters while US speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, an apparent publicity stunt which China interpreted as an act of aggression. The atmosphere of escalating tension led Dublin-based procurement staff at BT to carry out simulations, AKA war games, in which they examined the impact of a variety of responses to the conflict in the region escalating further, the Financial Times (FT) claimed on Sunday.
This revelation is further evidence that telcos are making preparations against a backdrop of growing tension in the region, following the supply chain disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. BT claimed the war games were nothing new and that it regularly runs simulations – “to stress test our business.” The telecoms company has so far not responded to inquiries for more details. China has been carrying out military drills around Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory. According to CityAM it stepped up the drills in the area around Taiwan earlier this month in response to Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, meeting US house speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
Any disruption to supply chains caused by a conflict would hit industries reliant upon semiconductors particularly hard, since Taiwan produces the majority of semiconductors globally. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. One company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), holds 53% of the global foundry market for semiconductors alone, according to US government research.
Intel’s European chief Frans Scheper previously warned that if China shut off Taiwan’s exports it could cause a major crisis. The US Chips and Science Act, passed in August 2022, contains over $200 billion to bolster US semiconductor industries and reduce reliance on global supply chains. The UK’s own House of Commons Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee has previously carried out a review urging the UK government to increase the resilience of UK supply chains in its semiconductor strategy. However, in what cold be a grim omen, the report not yet been published.
Meanwhile, however, the Sunday Times has reported that a low ranking 21-year-old US airman, Jack Teixeira, was given access to confidential data on top secret military missions in Ukraine, which included data shared by UK spy agency MI6, and leaked it to a discord server, where it was not spotted by US intelligence agencies until they read about the breach in the New York Times. The US now shares more confidential data with the Chinese than it does with its supposed allies, according to some security analysts. The BT War Games strategy is unlikely to have planned for that eventuality.